The canaries in the economic coal mine may not be who you expect. Sex workers and adult entertainers are reporting concerning shifts in customer behavior that could signal tough economic times ahead.
Catherine De Noire, who manages a legal brothel in Europe and studies organizational psychology, has observed a dramatic decline in business that she believes foretells economic trouble. "There are fewer clients coming in, and sex workers are reporting noticeably lower earnings," she notes. Even top performers are making about half of what they earned last year.
The pattern extends to the United States. Nevada's legal brothels have seen revenue drop approximately 20% since last quarter. Customers are negotiating lower prices or opting for minimal services - behavior that suggests people are tightening their belts.
Strip clubs are experiencing similar trends. Dancer and influencer Vulgar Vanity reports a stark difference from 2022, when major events in Austin could generate six-figure earnings. This year, she encountered empty clubs during typically lucrative periods like South by Southwest. Regular customers are either not tipping or giving less than half their usual amounts.
"Dancers are the first to feel it because we're the first ones tossed aside," Vanity explains, noting that adult entertainment is a discretionary expense people quickly cut when finances get tight. Las Vegas strip clubs have recorded a 12% revenue decline.
While these observations from sex workers may seem unconventional economic indicators, experts say they merit attention. Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, acknowledges such metrics "have a measure of validity" though they may track current conditions rather than predict future ones.
The sex industry's early warning signals join other unusual recession predictors like declining craft beer sales, dropping men's underwear purchases, and rising drugstore cosmetics sales. Each reflects shifts in discretionary spending that historically correlate with economic downturns.
For now, traditional economic measures suggest a slowdown rather than an imminent recession. But the experiences of sex workers offer unique insight into consumer confidence and spending patterns. Their front-line observations of changing customer behavior may prove prescient as economic conditions continue evolving.